All worldwide air travel disrupted for 20 years, repercussions?
just wondering what would happen (considering recent events) if all worldwide air travel would to stop today and stay that way for say 10 or 20 years.
with the recent events in Europe (Icelandic volcanic ash disrupting air travel) i would like to know what would happen if hypothetically the ash cloud continued to expand and spread around the world. obviously I’m aware that at this time this particular volcano is showing signs of diminishing eruption so it is unlikely to cause worldwide air travel shutdown, but I’m more interested in the consequences than the causes.
I’m particularly interested in the economic, environmental and social repercussions of essentially the planet being sent back to the equivalent of the start of the 20th century (in terms of air travel capability)
if you can back up your answer with some external references (studies) I’d be very grateful
It would not have any great effect in a 20 year time frame. In the short term (say 1 year) a few industries that rely on air freight for rapid transport would be affected, but those are very few. The human race doesn’t actually NEED to get fresh cut flowers from Africa to sell in European supermarkets, for example. And it would probably be better for Africa to grow its own food, not use its land and water resources for growing flowers.
Sea transport has developed a long way since 100 years ago. I did some work on the engines for cargo ships for fast transport of goods across the Atlantic at speeds of 50-60 knots (which is 4 or 5 times faster than 100 years ago). – actually they are powered by modified aircraft engines. There are also fast all-weather sea ferries (typically catamaran designs) that didn’t exist back then.
Modern rail networks are just as quick as air travel for land transport. Europe and Japan both run rail services at speeds over 200mph, (unlike the USA which hasn’t made any serious investment in its rail network for about 75 years now). It’s already quicker to travel from London to Paris or Brussels by train than by plane, city center to city center.
Most business air travel don’t serve any real purpose, now that video conferencing facilities are cheap and reliable.
In fact a serious long term disruption to air travel could be a good thing, in speeding up the rate of change to more sustainable alternatives.